On Wisconsin: Three Reasons To Reject Republican Framing Of The Senate Recall Results.

by Michael Matheron · August 11, 2011

We’re only down by 1 Senator!

Two of six intransigent Wisconsin GOP state senators were recalled successfully, creating a 17 Republican to 16 Democrat Senate. Note that I didn’t write, “Only two of six intransigent GOP state senators were recalled . . .” The results are disappointing, surely. Hopes and expectations were lofty: We’d take back the Senate. Then, union rights had a chance, sensible budgets would finally be implemented, including tax revenue raised from the wealthiest individuals and corporations. Candidly, though, we also knew that to get past a veto pen those aims had to be reinforced by a recall of GoverNO Walker.

The media, to a large extent, has (again) accepted the GOP framing of the meaning of these results: a smashing defeat for those union thugs and their Democratic enablers. For example, from the L.A. Times:

While strategists in both parties resisted reading too deeply into the national political mood based on Tuesday’s results, the outlook for Democrats does not shout, “Yes, we can. . . It’s clearly a big loss for labor, given the time and money devoted to it,” said Doug Heye, a GOP strategist in Washington.”

GOP talking points 101. To the contrary, the recall is nothing at all if not a solid win for Wisconsin, public sector unions, and Democrats. Here’s three reasons why:

     1. One of the Dem wins, Jessica King’s, was in a hotly contested, but generally Republican district. Three Dem losses were in similarly Republican areas. The exception, the now former Senator Dan Kapanke, the GOP Caucus Chairman, represented a democratic-leaning district. So, five battles were on the GOP’s home field. There was no easy race in any of those five. It’s not at all surprising that four of these districts went Republican, they have almost always done so. Any Democratic win was remarkable.

2. Since any win was an uphill battle, two wins is doubly remarkable, not as reported almost everywhere, a “failure to replace the GOP majority in the Senate, ” or a “huge loss for labor.”

3. Most importantly, Senate Dems are one senator shy of the majority. How is that a Democratic “failure”? On important issues legislative deals will need to be made. The GOP Senate cannot again take their heretofore three vote lead as a sure road to victory. Not to put too fine a point on it, but the Senate GOP needs the Democrats now. Here’s why:

— Longtime GOP Senator Dale Schultz has dealt well with Democratic senators, and is considered a bipartisan thinker, a contrarian. For example, he introduced an amendment to Walker’s budget bill to substantially soften the adverse financial impact on public employee union members. In the end, he reluctantly voted for the Walker budget – especially the collective bargaining provisions – while nearly all other GOP senators literally jumped for joy. In a sense, Schultz is now the most powerful senator in either party. In a 17 to 16 Senate, Schultz is the swing vote, and his pleasant ties to Democrats will be a plus going forward.

— When compared to Walker’s 2010 vote percentage, the GOP lost ground. In the recall, GOP voting percentages declined in five of six districts. While not dramatic, this is good for 2012. This trend is our friend:

Source, Craig Gilbert & Paul Maslin

Give it time. As the affects of the federal and state budget cuts increase unemployment and shrink confidence on Main Street, citizens’ suspicions will turn to the GOP, the self-satisfied immovable objects.

— There are six newly minted senators, elected in 2010: Pam Galloway (29); Frank Lasee (1); Terry Moulton (23); Leah Vukmir (25); Van Wanggaard (21); Rich Zipperer (33). Luckily for them, under Wisconsin recall rules, they are immune from recall since each has not yet served one year in office. They will take note of the slippage in GOP support, however, and conclude that this trend is not their friend. Perhaps, a moderation of their stubbornness may be in order? Hey you guys, talk to Senator Schultz . . . A 17-16 Senate gets every GOP member’s attention regardless of what they say publicly.

Hell, this even got the cocksure Guv’s attention. Although full of mischaracterization and misinformation, it’s as close to an admission of discomfort as Walker seems capable of. Here’s his statement:

Last November, the voters sent a message that they wanted fiscal responsibility and a focus on jobs. In our first months in office we balanced a $3.6 billion deficit and our state created 39,000 new jobs. It’s clear the voters also want us to work together to grow jobs and improve our state. [Ed., Yeah, sure.]

With that in mind, earlier this evening I reached out to the leadership of both the Republicans and Democrats in the Assembly and State Senate. I shared with them that I believe we can work together to grow jobs and improve our state. In the days ahead I look forward to working with legislators of all parties to grow jobs for Wisconsin and move our state forward

So, to sum up, Wisconsites who care about Democratic ideals can be optimistic about the recall results. Democrats not only scored in the GOP’s stadiums, these underdogs got their opponents’ attention, and even roughed them up a bit. Their owner, Mr. S. Walker. is a bit chagrined.

And the first half is not even over. On Wisconsin!