Double Dip In 2012
Housing prices – flat to slightly higher check this
Housing is the #1 source of family wealth, since they are not rising, families still feel poor, and are, in a sense, at least 90% of the pop.
Also, HELOC’s are much harder to qualify for
Auto sales is the primary reason for the rise in ec. Activity (check this)
auto purchases cycle (check this)
Oil/gas prices do not indicate economic activity much, reflects fear
Fed cannotr effectively lower interest rates
Governors who have argiued inflation is imminent are wrong
Bernanke’s hands are tied
Fiscal – Stimulus efforts in US are unlikely to non-starter
student loan crisis may be imminent
Results:
Possible auto loan crisis if the economy nose dives again
Almost certain studenbt (aand, even worse) cosigners student loan crisis ($1 Trillion outstanding), and borrowers cannot discharge in bankrupt.
Europe is slow
China slowing
Solutions:
Continue to stimulate the economy at 1-2 interest rates that now exist
Allow student loans a limited bankruptcy discharge, based on needs test
Allow Bush tax cuts to expire, and lower middle class taxes
Counter arguments:
Personal income is up
Unemployment and first-time Unem. Has dropped for a few months
