Whither the U.S. Senate? Joltin’ Joe Lieberman Might Decide.
So here we are (3:00 pm, November 3, 2010)
Colorado
Basics: Democratic incumbent Mike Bennett vs. GOP/Tea Party Ken Buck – Boulder, Fort Collins, and Denver will decide this race 135,000 Dem lead)
1.5 Million votes thus far = 90% of total votes cast, therefore, over 100,000 votes to yet be counted. Ken Buck has not conceded.
[Note: Although the networks have not done so, the Denver Post just announced that Bennett was the winner in Colorado 47.7% to 46.8% with 97% of precincts counted. But is it too soon to call it? By about 5:00 pm (EST) we’ll know.]
Washington
Democratic incumbent Patty Murray vs. “moderate” GOP Dino Rossi – Portland (Kings County), 85, 000 Dem lead there
1.4M votes cast thus far = 65% of total votes cast. A Murray win will come, if it does, from those counties surrounding Puget Sound, such as Seattle, in the far northwest.
Prediction, Schmidiction . . .
So, although I wrote early this morning that GOP/Tea Party control of the Senate would come down to Alaska’s race – alas! – I was, well, let’s not say “wrong,” let’s just say incorrect. Somehow, that comforts me.
For me, my prediction failed when – thankfully – Barbara Boxer (D-CA-Incumbent), on the usual strength of California’s northwest coast and Los Angeles, bested Carly Fiorina (TP). When I wrote this morning’s blog, the race was close, and I believed that, in those western parts of the state, she would lose a substantial number of votes to a surging bunch of Tea Partiers. This did not happen, and Boxer won handily, and the Democrats ultimately will retain Senate control, although that will be paper thin, especially given the empowerment (again) of Boltin’ Joe Lieberman (I-CT), discussed below.
Despite Alaska’s race, however, being now unimportant regarding control of the Senate (remember the winner was always going to be either GOP “moderate” Lisa Murkowski or Tea Party meganut Joe Miller), the actual winner will be important in many key votes coming up in the 112th Congress. Without a doubt, I’d rather have Murkowski voting, or negotiating, or anything else, than the raging Tea Partier, Joe Miller. Period. Paragraph.
So, the frozen north still looms above. Murkowski, as a write-in candidate, leads by 13, 000 votes (out of 77% of the votes cast thus far), but since the votes for write-ins include all write-in choices made by voters, it will probably be a day or so before it’s all sorted out. Knowing the mess that is the Tea Party and Joe Miller, I do not expect him to concede . . . ever. Will there be an empty Senate seat for a while as the election is litigated? Recall Minnesota’s Al Franken.
Joltin’ Joe Lieberman. Oh, and one other matter: Whither Joe Lieberman (I-CT)? Who will he choose to caucus with? The ever waffley Joe Lieberman, part politician, part politician, must be amused by the possibilities. Presently, he officially caucus with the Democrats, but if Colorado and Washington go to the GOP, and with Alaska a GOP victory with either viable candidate, where will Joe go?
In fact, if all the remaining toss ups go to the GOP, the Senate will be split, 51 Dems to 49 Repubs. But remember, Lieberman is an IINO (Independent In Name Only), and will be courted by both sides. Will he jump the fence (again) and join the GOP caucus, or even declare himself Republican. Joe will do what benefits Joe, and his decision will come down to his analysis of 2012. He bears watching. . .
