Hanging By A Thread? Speaker John Boehner, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, And A Fiscal Cliff Deal

Michael Matthew Bloomer, January 1, 2013

‘Mr. Speaker, I think a soft landing is out of the question?’

Here’s the HuffPo headline:U.S. Fiscal Cliff Deal Leaves Republicans Angry, Deal In Jeopardy ¹

The article uncovers a predictable rift between House and Senate Republicans. The House, according to lore, is the “hot coffee” of the democratic masses that the Senate “saucer” of cool republican circumspection is expected to cool. This time, though, the House is ablaze with Tea Party heat, and it’s showing in the House GOP reaction to the Senate bill passed in the wee hours of 2013 .

According to HuffPo:

“I’ll be shocked if this isn’t sent back to the Senate,” said Rep. Spencer Bachus (R-Ala.), leaving the meeting. “I don’t think that’s out of the realm of possibility,” said a senior House GOP aide, confirmed by other high-level aides.

They’ll have no difficulty making life uncomfortable for Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), who they blame for getting them in this mess, said one GOP source close to the situation. “He jammed the House. He’s gonna get re-jammed,” he said of the possibility the House amends the bill and sends it back to the Senate.

That would create a volcano of trouble, much of it coming in the realization that the Tea Party contingent has the hubris to “jam” their own party’s Senate Minority Leader. In many ways they already run the House, with or without the Speaker. Do they now run the Senate? That would be an overstatement, but while their power may not extend that far, I’d not bet against the House Tea Partiers making House passage of H.R. 8 a hotly contested affair within their own party, as they did two weeks ago with John Boehner’s unfortunate adventure known s “Plan B.”² On December 20th they handed Speaker Boehner his hat by resisting Plan B so forcefully that Boehner, for lack of ‘Yea’ votes, could not bring it to the floor. Apparently, now Mitch McConnell’s caught their collective eye. How often in our legislative history has such a small band of virtual backbenchers in the lower house held so much sway in our governing bodies?

Aggressive Progressives. Also, potentially heating things up as well, let’s not forget the House progressives, a group of around 80 votes. I wrote about their possible role in the fiscal cliff debate, and speculated that they might bolt from an agreement that did not go far enough to increase taxes on wealthier Americans or to protect social safety net programs from GOP flame throwers.³ The agreement passed by the Senate today does contain some provisions that might be called progressive victories on the social welfare front. For example, there are no disabling attacks on Medicare or Social Security, and certain tax benefits that favor middle class families were left intact. However, the progressive caucus has fought hard for the expiry of the Bush tax bonanza to be applied to incomes above $200,000 for individuals and $250,000 for joint filers, yet the bill set a benchmark in the $400,000 range. That this occurred troubles progressives who feel that trying to raise taxes at a later date in the 113th Congress to take in the group with incomes between $200,000/$250,000 and $400,000/$450,000 will be nearly impossible even with a handful more Democrats on board as of January 3, 2013 when the 113th convenes.

To get anything even remotely acceptable to both Tea Partiers and to progressives will both require promises, arm ringing, and leadership pleading in the hours and days ahead. It seems an impossible task. Can the odd couple of these left and right caucuses scuttle a deal? Not likely, at least not by themselves. If Nancy Pelosi and John Boehner can get the remaining members of their parties to vote “Yea,” the progressives and Tea Partiers don’t have a voting block large enough to sink a fiscal cliff bill. But the odd couple can muck things up with amendment proposals, if the Rules Committee permits amendments during floor consideration. During the past few days, the President has indicated he’d like to see a quick up or down vote. The House Rules Committee GOP contingent of eight members, however, is packed with Tea Partiers and a certifiable right wing loon, North Carolina’s Virginia Foxx.⁴ They may be quite unfriendly to the Senate’s iteration of H.R. 8, and wish to have a “lively” rule allowing amendments. Boehner, though, as Speaker, has quite a bit of inherent power and might be able to suppress that (assuming he desires to have an up or down, all amendments barred,floor rule). OY! Enough already! We do live in interesting times, so, naturally enough, an interesting few days lay ahead.

Is it possible that this hot brew of strong Tea Party and progressive coffee can be cooled down? If not by the Senate, then by whom? Where’s Fiscal Clifford when we need him?

Oh, yeah . . .

United States Superhero Fiscal Clifford

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