In Swine Flu Reporting “Conflate” Is A Dirty Word
CNN online reports today, as have many others, that “Hysteria over swine flu is the real danger, some say.” Actually, “many say” would be more accurate. I agree and I disagree. (I hate when I say that.)
What’s actually happening is called “conflation.” (Snob alert!) I don’t always like to use Wikipedia (End of Snob Alert), but here it’s accurate and really well-stated:
“Conflation occurs when the identities of two or more individuals, concepts, or places, sharing some characteristics of one another, become confused until there seems to be only a single identity.”
What’s the conflation in the swine flu context? It’s our (I suffer from it too sometimes) inclination to meld the journalistic treatment of the reaction to the swine flu with the public health organizations’ reactions to it. The media treats it, for example, as firstly, as story, a narrative to be expanded upon primarily to outdo its competitors. This is not to imply that they do not also serve a vital public health role: their reporting of the flu assists the public health response immeasurably. Yet, they always go well beyond the needs of the public health community when they sensationalize and give media time to those who, for example, refuse to leave their homes, or boycott bacon.
What is not overblown, however, is the public health response to the pandemic. And that is what is lost in the over-the-top reporting of it. The world’s health organizations have developed careful and historically-based criteria for their response levels, and the influenza A(H1N1) triggered those. The media did not trigger these alarms; epidemiological evidence from surveillance protocols did. Confirmed cases did. Microbiological investigations did. The health organizations reactions were measured and according to their fairly conservative methods – they, above all, do not want to trigger a panic. They, however, must report a pandemic when their evidence indicates a pandemic exists. They do not publish reports that call upon the public to hide in cellars, for example, they do, however, and must, report on the incidence of cases and the morbidity of those cases. Thus far, their reporting is strictly fact based.
So, what’s the danger in conflation here? When we get sick and tired of what we see as an overreaction to the swine flu as reported round the clock by media outlets, we run the risk of attributing that to organizations like the World Health Organization (WHO) and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). These organizations are not responsible for the media’s reactions. What then occurs is that we attribute the same conclusions we draw about the media to the health agencies, we “conflate.” We then assume that WHO and CDC are also overreacting, and risk tuning out their reports on the spread of the virus. We conflate the sometimes idiotic news reporting with the rarely overwrought reporting of the health agencies.
Breaking the Conflation Habit. How can we address this? Well, I think that if we have an interest in this, and we should, it ought to be based upon the primary sources, i.e. the actual reports of CDC and WHO. When the media reports we can then choose to listen or not, but at least we’ll be armed with the actual scientific reporting. That way we can separate the two parts of the conflation here: the media’s frequent overreactions and the health agencies normal operating procedures.
Here’s where you can get the real scoop:
1. WHO’s Swine Flu Homepage Here’s where you can access the daily report.
Here’s today’s WHO report (May 3, 2009):
3 May 2009 — As of 0600 GMT, 3 May 2009, 17 countries have officially reported 787 cases of influenza A(H1N1) infection.
Mexico has reported 506 confirmed human cases of infection, including 19 deaths. The higher number of cases from Mexico in the past 48 hours reflects ongoing testing of previously collected specimens. The United States Government has reported 160 laboratory confirmed human cases, including one death.
The following countries have reported laboratory confirmed cases with no deaths – Austria (1), Canada (70), China, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (1), Costa Rica (1), Denmark (1), France (2), Germany (6), Ireland (1), Israel (3), Netherlands (1), New Zealand (4), Republic of Korea (1), Spain (13), Switzerland (1) and the United Kingdom (15).
Further information on the situation will be available on the WHO website on a regular basis.
WHO advises no restriction of regular travel or closure of borders. It is considered prudent for people who are ill to delay international travel and for people developing symptoms following international travel to seek medical attention, in line with guidance from national authorities.
Canada on 2 May reported the identification of the A(H1N1) virus in a swine herd in Alberta. It is highly probable that the pigs were exposed to the virus from a Canadian farm worker recently returned from Mexico, who had exhibited flu-like symptoms and had contact with the pigs. There is no indication of virus adaptation through transfer from human to pigs at this time.
There is no risk of infection from this virus from consumption of well-cooked pork and pork products.
Individuals are advised to wash hands thoroughly with soap and water on a regular basis and should seek medical attention if they develop any symptoms of influenza-like illness.
2. CDC’s Swine Flu Homepage. This page has today’s daily report and numerous links to information. Their past updates are here.
Check them daily. That’s really all you need to break the conflation habit!
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